Mortgage Outlook - Winter 2008

Expert view on where the market is heading

Benjamin Tal, Senior Economist - CIBC World Markets

The credit crunch is far from over. But with credit spreads improving notably since early September, it seems that the market's focus is slowly shifting towards the US economy, which is deep in recession. Overall, it lost 1.2 million jobs this year, with about half of that taking place in the last three months.

What will it take to get out of this recessionary territory? The Federal Reserve has more ammunition than simply cutting rates—and in this sense, it's more powerful than in previous recessions. Specifically, the Troubled Assets Relief Program (otherwise known as the bailout) gave the Fed more flexibility to provide liquidity to banks without driving the effective Fed funds rate to 0%.

Saving People - Drowning in a sea of debt

If you have a dream, Richard Cooper knows, it's wise to also have a backup plan.

Cooper – president and chief executive of Richmond Hill-based Total Debt Freedom – grew up wanting to be a fighter pilot. Not just any fighter pilot, he wanted to fly the Royal Air Force's fabled Harrier – the jet can fly vertically, even backward – that distinguished itself over the skies of the Falklands Conflict in the early 1980s.

So, when he finished university, Cooper applied to the RAF. He had the marks, he had the skills, but he also had a problem. At 6-foot-3, he couldn't fit into the Harrier's cockpit.

So he turned to Plan B.

Calculators at dawn? Economists square off

Calculators at dawn? Economists square off

KEVIN CARMICHAEL

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

February 4, 2009 at 4:01 AM EST

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada today will attempt to make believers of the Bay Street economists who are unusually skeptical about Governor Mark Carney's prediction for a quick rebound from recession.

At a meeting likely to last five hours at the central bank's headquarters in Ottawa, the economists are expected to spend the first 30 minutes duking it out with central bank officials over their divergent views of Canada's prospects.

Following opening remarks by deputy governor John Murray, the first item on the agenda is a discussion on "forecast comparisons and issues arising" from the Bank of Canada's latest policy update and "chief economists' forecasts," according to a copy of the agenda obtained by The Globe and Mail.